2024 Strategist Outlook: Market drivers and detractors for 2H
September 03, 2024
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2 min read
After seeing the S&P 500® deliver 15.3% in the first half of 20241, investors faced big questions about how the markets are shaping up for the remainder of the year. Would the rally continue? Could central banks be successful in reining in inflation? When would the Fed cut rates? What would a contentious US election mean for markets?
These questions were posed in the 2024 Strategist Outlook survey taken by 30 economists and strategists in the Natixis Investment Managers family in July.
Garrett Melson, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, Portfolio Strategist, and Kari Grant, Vice President of Government Relations, join Dave Goodsell, Executive Director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight, to discuss macro, market and political implications.
Key takeaways:
- Two-thirds of the 2024 Strategist Outlook survey respondents project US stocks will be the best of all regions in 2H.
- US markets tend to have characteristics that investors want to pay up for in uncertain times: strong balance sheets, cash, little net debt and large margins.
- The US and EU approach technology regulation differently; the EU may focus more on privacy and job security while national security could dominate the US debate.
- Elections can be a source of market volatility in the near term but don’t usually matter as much in the long term.
- Inflation is nearing the Fed’s 2% target by year-end.
- The market’s focus has shifted from inflation to growth; growth is now clearly moderating.
- Heightened geopolitical risk is here to stay – at least in the near future.
