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Managing market volatility
Managing market volatility
Why it’s ok to invest with uncertainty. From geopolitical shifts to central bank rate-setting, uncertainty is everywhere
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Managing market volatility

Why it’s ok to invest during uncertainty

From geopolitical shifts to central bank rate-setting, uncertainty is everywhere

Managing market volatility

From the challenges of interpreting geopolitical shifts to lingering questions around the rate-setting strategy of central banks, the only thing that’s certain today is that uncertainty appears to be everywhere you look. Just look at the tariffs policy announced by US President Donald Trump on 2 April, which clearly roiled markets. While it is unclear how far tariffs will effect markets, we should expect to see more volatility and more uncertainty ahead.

As long-term, active investors, however, what we have long understood is that volatility is a feature, not a bug of financial markets. Moreover, volatility is something many active managers use to their advantage. Here are some questions we’ve been asked about volatility, with answers provided from our range of experts across the Natixis Investment Managers family.

Whether it’s Covid, wars in Europe or the Middle East, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank or Trump’s tariffs, the uncertainty and volatility experienced over the past five years is being felt across financial markets – and it looks set to be with us for the foreseeable future.

As Julien Dauchez, Head of Portfolio Consulting & Advisory at Natixis IM Solutions, explains: “We’re in a very different place from the investment environment we lived in from 2010 to 2020, which was characterised by lower rates, lower inflation and lower volatility.

“Average equity volatility is higher since 2020, the spikes in volatility are becoming more frequent, and volatility of volatility – which reflects how much the market's expectations of future volatility are changing – is also on the rise.”

In the short term, there is always a degree of volatility – and uncertainty. But if you look over the longer term, the highs and the lows get smoothed out into a gentle climb.

As the chart shows, we get dramatic market selloffs every few decades, and they vary in size and scale, but the bull runs far outpace the bears. In short, there are more ups than downs, both in frequency and magnitude.

Bull and Bear Markets since 1954
Source: Bloomberg, US Solutions

And in such times of wild market volatility and investor uncertainty, it should be comforting to realise that diversification, analysis, and time-tested investment themes are more important than ever

Find out how our investment managers are turning this increased volatility into opportunity:

For decades, as rates and yields fell, bond prices rose, and the fixed income asset class was a reliable hedge for riskier assets like stocks. But as inflation has returned so interest rates and market volatility have risen with it.

Looking ahead, there is little to suggest that the world is about to become much less volatile - geopolitical tensions are high and rising; increased tariffs could lead to higher inflation in the short term, while replacing fossil fuels will be difficult and expensive over the long term; and forces like ageing populations, deglobalisation and increased protectionism could slow down growth.

In such a complex landscape, experience matters, as does an active approach. Find out how our investment managers are thinking about the current opportunity:

Few would disagree that diversification is a key component of any successful investment strategies, but there are a myriad ways to achieve diversification and, knowing which ones to use when is vital.

Read more about an approach to assessing risk that has fallen out of favour in recent years, but which may well be making a come back.

Get in touch with our solutions team for a bespoke portfolio assessment

Marketing communication. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Views expressed in this article as of the date indicated are subject to change and there can be no assurance that developments will transpire as may be forecasted in this article. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided.