Identifying the key transitions

From climate change to AI, geopolitical shifts to ageing populations, there are four clear and interrelated transitions that are likely to continue shaping the investment landscape over the next ten years.

Technology

By 2035, technological advances like automation, machine learning, and artificial intelligence will likely have a major disruptive impact on job markets, making millions of jobs obsolete¹. Technologies like self-driving cars are expected to proliferate, raising governance and adaptation challenges¹. Quantum computing could revolutionise fields like materials science and drug discovery³. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and potentially Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) may emerge, necessitating robust ethical frameworks³.

Climate change

The consequences of climate change are likely to become increasingly apparent by 2035, leading to more climate-related political disputes¹. Renewable energy could proliferate but trigger instability in fossil fuel-dependent countries¹. Integrated AI climate models, renewable tech, and geoengineering are expected to become crucial for global infrastructure³.

Geopolitical tension

While the US should remain the largest military power, China’s influence is expected to grow substantially¹. Russia may focus on asymmetric advantages to counter its declining population¹. New arenas of state competition could emerge around space, cyberwarfare, internet governance, and the Arctic¹. Meanwhile, global trade is unlikely to sustain the high growth rates reached in recent decades as China reorients toward domestic consumption¹. Regional trade agreements excluding major powers like the US and EU should expand¹ and a push for higher environmental and labour standards in developing countries is expected¹.

Ageing humanity

Ageing populations, predominately in developed countries, are likely to strain resources and prompt political tensions around migration¹. The transition to an information economy could shift partisan coalitions and incentive structures in politics¹. Hyper-personalisation through AI will likely transform industries from education to marketing³. Brain-computer interfaces are expected to blur human-machine boundaries^3,2.