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Investing lessons from 150 years of drawdowns

July 09, 2025 - 5 min

Using the past 150 years for illustration, Aziz Hamzaogullari, CFA®, Founder, CIO, and Portfolio Manager, Growth Equity Strategies at Loomis, Sayles & Company, explains why the risk of downside market volatility is inevitable, frequent, and unpredictable. He discusses:

  • How history shows that from 1871 to 2022, there were 23 market corrections of 15% or more – one every 6½ years, on average.1
  • Why most people believe the world is more certain than it truly is on any given day, but then are suddenly blindsided by a risk no one saw coming, otherwise known as “hindsight bias.”
  • Why he understands there's always a risk around the corner that no one is talking about, so he embraces this uncertainty and is always prepared to take advantage of it using his prudent, long-term investment approach.
  • Why he believes the best preparation is a consistent and disciplined ability to allocate capital rationally, based on deeply informed views of reward to risk, and why it demands the temperament and discipline to be a contrarian at all times.   

As a patient investor, the Loomis Growth Equity Strategies Team maintains its analysis of high-quality, structural and profitable growth companies to take advantage of meaningful downside market volatility when it occurs.

1 Journal of Portfolio Management, July 2023, “Fairy Tails: Lessons from 150 Years of Drawdowns,” Ashwin Alankar, Daniel Ding, Allan Maymin, Philip Maymin, and Myron Scholes.

Additional Notes

This material has been prepared and distributed by Natixis Investment Managers Australia Proprietary Limited. ABN 60 088 786 289, AFSL 246830, and may include information provided by third parties. Although Natixis Investment Managers Australia believes that the material in this article is correct, no warranty of accuracy, reliability, or completeness is given, including for information provided by third parties except for liability under statute which cannot be excluded. This material is not personal advice. The material is for general information only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should consider and consult with your professional advisor whether the information is suitable for your circumstances. The opinions expressed in the materials are those of the portfolio manager and may not necessarily be those of the Natixis investment Managers Australia or its affiliate Investment Managers. Before deciding to acquire or continue to hold an investment in a fund, you should consider the information contained in the product disclosure statement in conjunction with the target market determination, TMD.

Past investment performance is not a reliable indicator of future investment performance and no guarantee of performance, return of capital, or a particular rate of return is provided. Any mention of specific company names, securities, or asset classes is strictly for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell. Any commentary about specific securities is within the context of the investment strategy for the given portfolio. The material may not be reproduced, distributed, or published in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Natixis Investment Managers Australia. Copyright 2025 Natixis Investment Managers Australia. All rights reserved.

 

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