Harris l Oakmark’s Bill Nygren, CIO-U.S., Portfolio Manager, and Robert Bierig, Portfolio Manager, share three reasons why they believe today’s S&P 500® Index has significantly increased in risk over the past few years. They discuss the following key points:
- Why it is misleading to believe a changing S&P 500® Index is a relatively low-risk or almost-no-risk alternative.
- How concentration, style, and valuation risks have all substantially increased in the index over the past few years.
- Why concentration in the top five names in the S&P 500® is at a record high because the five largest holdings now make up about 27% of the index.
- The information technology industry now accounts for 32% of the index.
- The Morningstar growth/value score for the index is now close to an average of 150, meaning the index sits somewhere between a value and a growth fund. In June of this year, that score was 190, making it a highly concentrated growth fund.
- Based on history, they believe the odds of strong performance from the S&P 500® for the next five years look relatively low.
- Today, the S&P scores as riskier than almost 80% of value funds.
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